A Stochastic Collision Risk Model for Seabirds in Flight

Collision Risk Models (CRM) are used to assess impacts on seabird populations in all offshore wind farms Environmental Impact Assessments (‘EIA‘) and Habitats Regulations Appraisals (‘HRA‘) in the UK. Existing collision models are unable to properly incorporate variation or uncertainty in the input parameters into calculations of collision frequency, nor estimate the uncertainty around these values. Uncertainty in predicted collision numbers may result in the delays in the licensing process for offshore wind farms, or with proposed windfarms being reduced in size or even cancelled. This project created a CRM that incorporates variability in input parameters into the predicted collision number, alongside estimates of associated uncertainty around this value. In order to produce a collision model that addressed the key issues identified by users on CRMs or their outputs, stakeholders were consulted through a questionnaire-based survey. More information on the tool, including the tool itself, a user guide and a full report into the development of the tool can be found on the Scottish Government website.