Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN) - Predictions of river temperature and sensitivity to climate change

River temperature data underpinning the model and associated predictions is from the Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN) (see link under ‘Additional Information’ Tab). SRTMN is a strategically designed and quality controlled network being delivered by Marine Scotland Science – Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory (MSS-FFL) in collaboration with local rivers and fisheries trusts and boards.

Details on SRTMN and the network design can be found in Jackson et al (2016) ‘A novel approach for designing large-scale river temperature monitoring networks’. (see link under ‘Additional Information’ Tab).

The daily maximum river temperature model for Scotland allows current and future river temperatures and sensitivity to climate change to be predicted from; the day of the year (DoY), air temperature on that day, location in the country (region/hydrometric area), location on the river network and the characteristics of the river (elevation, bankside woodland and channel orientation). The predictions can be used to identify areas which may benefit from management action such as native tree planting to reduce maximum temperatures. This information should be combined with an understanding of the processes controlling the effectiveness of riparian shading to make decisions on the precise locations for planting (see Marine Scotland Topic Sheet ‘Where should we plant trees’ under ‘Additional Information’ Tab).

The single layer 4 has been developed by (1) dividing the predictions of layer 2 and layer 3 into 5 equal categories between the minimum and maximum observed values (2) assigning these categories a value ranging from 1 (the hottest / most sensitive rivers) to 5 (the coolest / least sensitive rivers) (3) sum the rankings (-1) to produce an overall priority ranking (1:9) where rivers ranked as 1 are the highest priority for management (i.e. high river temperature and high climate sensitivity) and 9 the lowest.

The details of the model and predictions can be found in: Jackson, F.L., Fryer, R.J., Hannah, D.M., Millar, C.P., and Malcolm, I.A. (2018) ‘A spatio-temporal statistical model of maximum daily river temperatures to inform the management of Scotland's Atlantic salmon rivers under climate change.’ Science of The Total Environment., 612, 1543-1558. (see link under ‘Additional Information’ Tab).